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RV085: POPULATION PROJECTION 2025-2085: DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS BY SEX AND COUNTY

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13. June 2024
Statistics Estonia
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Total fertility rate shows the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she passed through all her childbearing years (15-49) conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.
Natural increase is the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths.
Net migration is the difference the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants.
The mathematical formulas used in population statistics are set out in the methodology document.
The population is calculated as of 1 January each year. Indicators refer to events that occurred in a given year (for example, births and deaths in 2050).
Input indicators for the scenarios (in this order: total fertility rate 2050/2085; life expectancy for males (M) and females (F) 2050/2085; approximate net migration):
Scenario 1 (baseline) - 1.63/1.7; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 4,000
Scenario 2 (higher fertility) - 1.65/1.87; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 4,000
Scenario 3 (lower fertility) - 1.48/1.53; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 4,000
Scenario 4 (life expectancy stays the same) - 1.63/1.7; M 75, F 83 / M 75, F 83; 4,000
Scenario 5 (excluding migration) - 1.63/1.7; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 0
Scenario 6 (higher migration) - 1.63/1.7; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 6,000
Scenario 7 (lower fertility, higher migration) - 1.48/1.53; M 78, F 86 / M 85, F 91; 6,000
For more information on the population projection method used, see the 2024 population projection methodology document.